5 Umpire Biases That Could Be Killing Your At-Bats (And How to Beat Them)

If you’ve ever felt like you got squeezed on a borderline strike call, you’re not crazy. Umpires, like players, are human–and they have biases that can impact the outcome of games. But here’s the kicker: these biases aren’t random. Thanks to research from Lopez and Mills (2018), we now have a deeper understanding of how umpires call games–especially in extra innings.

So if you want to be the best hitter on the field, you need to know how to adjust your approach based on umpire tendencies. Let’s break down the top five ways umpire behavior can shift the game–and how you can turn that into an advantage at the plate.


1. The Extra-Inning Shrink Factor: Why Umpires Want the Game to End

A study by Lopez and Mills (2018) found that umpires are more likely to call strikes when the away
team is ahead and more likely to call balls when the home team has runners on base.

How to Adjust:

  • If you’re the away team hitter, prepare for a tighter strike zone. Battle with two strikes and expand
    your approach slightly.
  • If you’re on the home team with runners in scoring position, be patient! You may get a favorable
    ball call.

umpire-bias-baseball-softball


2. Borderline Pitches Aren’t 50/50 – They’re Situational

Umpires call pitches differently depending on the game context.

How to Adjust:

  • Know the umpire’s tendencies. Some umpires naturally call a wider zone.
  • Master your two-strike approach. Work on fouling off tough pitches.

3. Late-Game Pitcher Advantage: The Deck is Stacked Against You

When you combine high-velocity relievers with umpires expanding the strike zone in extra innings, hitting gets even harder.

How to Adjust:

  • Be aggressive early in the count.
  • Train for late-game fastballs with high-velocity machine work.

umpire-bias-baseball-softball-pitchers


4. The Mental Side: How Emotions Affect Strike Calls

Umpires, like players, get fatigued, leading to more erratic calls.

How to Adjust:

  • Control what you can control. Complaining won’t change the call.
  • Stay mentally locked in with a breathing routine.


5. Advanced Training: What the Best Hitters Are Doing

The best hitters aren’t just reacting–they’re preparing for umpire tendencies.

How to Adjust:

  • Use video analysis to track how umpires call games.
  • Train for different strike zones.

Final Thoughts

The best hitters don’t just react–they anticipate. Adapt to the game, control what you can, and
dominate at the plate.

References:
– Lopez, M. J., & Mills, B. M. (2018). Opportunistic Shirking Behavior During Unpaid Overtime.
Journal of Personnel Economics. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=3129084

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